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Confronting Unknowns

Navigating Decisions When the Map Runs Out

Recent Writing

decision-makinguncertaintycognitive biases

The Dead Reckoning Problem: How to Make Good Decisions Without a Fixed Reference Point

Dead reckoning reveals how skilled navigators make confident decisions without GPS. Here's what that means for decisions made in uncertain, shifting conditions.

· 4 min read

Scenario Planning Without the Crystal Ball: How to Think in Multiple Futures

The Overfitting Problem: Why Your Hard-Won Experience Can Become a Liability

The Sunk Cost Fallacy's Dangerous Cousin: Escalation of Commitment in High-Stakes Decisions

The Reversibility Trap: Why You're Treating Every Decision Like It's Permanent

The Cobra Effect: When Your Solution Becomes the Problem
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Confronting Unknowns explores decision-making under uncertainty, complexity science, risk analysis. New writing published regularly.