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Confronting Unknowns

Navigating Decisions When the Map Runs Out

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The Dunning-Kruger Effect in High-Stakes Decisions: Why Overconfident Leaders Fail

How cognitive overconfidence creates blind spots in leadership decisions and practical strategies to counter this bias.

· 3 min read

Satisficing vs. Optimizing: Why Perfect Decisions Don't Exist

Why Your Brain's Prediction Engine Fails in Novel Situations

Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision Model and Why Experts Don't Deliberate

The Difference Between Complicated and Complex (And Why It Matters)

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Confronting Unknowns explores decision-making under uncertainty, complexity science, risk analysis. New writing published regularly.